ini adalah bentuk pemikiran, uneg-uneg, rasa cinta dan perasaan dalam tulisan dari seorang pecinta film, buku dan music.. terlebih lagi Kimi Raikkonen.. (suami dan anak2 mah udah pasti laa yaw.. !) ^_^

Friday, January 23, 2009

Hasil karyanya Fira

 


..ini judulnya ayah bunda..

takjub sekali melihat gambar pertamanya di semester pertamanya di kelas A1 TK Salman..
dari sekian banyak objek yang bisa Fira pilih untuk jadi bahan lukisannya.. dia milih untuk menggambar rupa ayah & bundanya..

Subhannallah.. yang menjadinya seorang anak begitu mencintai kedua orang tuanya..

Semoga Alloh selalu memeliharanya dna menjadikannya anak yang soleh dan membawa kebaikan di muka bumi ini.. Amiennn Ya Robbal'alamin

Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Kilas Balik 2008

Huaaaaaaaaaaanhhhh...
udah di penghujung tahun 2008...

selama tahun ini sebenernya banyak hal2 yang berkesan yang terjadi.. mulai dari awal tanggal 27 Jan 2008 hari pertama kali masuk rumah citra villa (which is ditandai dengan wafatnya presiden RI yang ke-2).. hari pertama Fira sekolah.. and so on..

but for most the part ada 2 foto yang menandai kejadian penting di 2008..

Pertama:
foto ini nih...



ini pas kejadian di EY night Fever September 2008..
kalo bukan atas petunjuk dan nasihat bapak (hihihiii... orba banget gak sih.. :P) .. eh.. abang tercinta di rumah.. ai engga bakal bisa nambah koleksi jam swatch di rumah..

padahal aslinya pas pagi hari kejadian masih blank nih mau pake kostum apa.. ceritanya mau browsing idea ama dia.. yang ada malah Abangku dengan gesit bilang pake ini, pake itu, bawa ini & bawa itu.. cuman minus karton aja tuh.. (soalnya jadi mikir 7 keliling kalo nanti makan megangnya tuh bawaan gimana.. hehehehehheee)

and hasilnya not bad at all... *cengir gede mode on*

berita lengkapnya sih bisa juga di baca di Blognya Mbak Nova dengan alamat
http://kepak-kepik.blogspot.com/2008/09/best-costum.html


kedua:

foto me dengan my most wanted man to meet..



ini ceritanya lain lagi nih..
entuh mall di depan kantor udah berdiri dari setahun yang lalu.. udah tau juga dari setahun yang lalu kalo tokonya Tag bakalan ada di sana.. tau dari mana.. yaa dari gambanya Maria Sharapova yang segede-gede gaban...

oon nya.. engga pernah curiga kalo mustinya di sisi yang laen harusnya terpajang juga icon Tag yang lainnya doonkk.. ih.. oon.. bener-bener oon banget deh engga kepikiran sampe segitunya..

sampai suatu hari gw nyasar lewat masuk lewat pintu utara..

asli boo ampe terkaget2 liat itu muka si ganteng.. langsung aja deh panik.. nelpon sana sini.. ngetekin temen nyari sana sini yang bersedia jadi korban untuk motoin gue ama dia..

untungnya sahabat gue akhirnya mau juga nemenin.. meskipun prosesnya emang musti pasang muka tebellllll... tapi seru.. asli seru... engga bakalan nyangka sesi pemotretannya bakalan segitu serunya..

udah niat nih bakalan mau balik lagi buat ambil pose yang lebih ajaib lagi... ehhh... udah keburu buka tuh toko.. hiks...

but after all.. gue berhasil bikin Erna cemburu berat.... horeeeee!!!!!

soo long 2008... and with open arms and highly new hopes.. here come 2009....

Friday, November 28, 2008

Head to Head Kimi Vs. Masa

Kimi compare to Massa..
if you ask me I would tell you that Kimi lottssss better than Massa.. :D

but hey.. it's not only me who say that..
ask crash dot net.. and they will answer you the same...

here they are..













Top 6th Driver by Crash.net Pooling

yang tersisa dari race season 2008..
as you know my beloved driver only took place on the third of the championship title.. but at lease he tried.. :D

terusss... Crash.net ngadain pooling, and again FM cuman jadi runner up.. hehehehe..

here's the detail...
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Top ten F1 drivers: 6th - Kimi Raikkonen.

Fri 21 Nov, 12:29 PM

Kimi Raikkonen takes sixth place in your vote for the top F1 driver of the year.
After asking you to vote for your leading drivers from the 2008 Formula 1 World Championship season, the time has come to start the countdown to the driver you voted the top star of 2008.

Over the next ten weekdays, we will be revealing the top ten in reverse order, with the winner being revealed on Friday, 28 November.

More than 45,000 votes were cast in the F1 poll, with each driver's average score out of ten then being calculated to decide the winner.

F1 Driver of the Year - Sixth place:
Name: Kimi Raikkonen
Team: Ferrari
Car: Ferrari F2008
Wins: 2
Podiums: 10
Pole positions: 2
Fastest laps: 10
Championship points: 75
Championship position: 3rd

Kimi Raikkonen developed into something of an enigma in 2008. His celebrated 'Ice Man' persona frosted over so much that many were left to wonder if his desire to scrap and to win had cooled off altogether. For much of the season, indeed, it seemed as if Kimi had left the building.

Entering the campaign as the reigning Formula 1 World Champion, Raikkonen was in most observers' eyes the favourite to repeat that success, but he did not so much surrender his crown with a fight as practically cast it away, apparently uninterested in defending the title that he had battled so hard and so greatly against the odds to claim the previous year.

The Finn started proceedings off well enough, with triumphs in two of the first four races, the runner-up spot in Bahrain and pole position in Barcelona seeing him leading the drivers' standings early on. What's more, a record-equalling ten fastest laps proved that the scintillating raw speed for which Raikkonen has become famous was still there - somewhere, at least, but seemingly only when it was too late.

After his initial flourish, however, the 17-time grand prix winner's momentum stalled to such an extent that he even went backwards, and a catastrophic error in running into the back of the Force India of Adrian Sutil in the closing laps at Monaco would in hindsight prove to be the beginning of the end of his challenge.

Raikkonen found himself on the receiving end of just such a catastrophic error himself when Lewis Hamilton clattered into the back of him in the Montreal pit-lane during the Canadian Grand Prix - a race he could well have won - and then an exhaust problem forced him to cede victory to team-mate Felipe Massa in the French Grand Prix at Magny-Cours.

There followed Ferrari's dismal performance in the rain-lashed British Grand Prix at Silverstone in mid-summer from which Raikkonen did reasonably well to salvage fifth place as Massa proved to be all at sea in the sister scarlet machine, but the hard facts are that in the wake of his Spanish success in late April, the 29-year-old would not win again all year. The Brazilian did so five times.

Worse still, for four consecutive grands prix from Valencia in August to Singapore a month later he did not score at all - the final nail in the coffin of the defence of his trophy, and a showing that led many, the Scuderia's president Luca di Montezemolo notably amongst them, to question where his motivation had gone and whether he would even still be around in F1 in 2009.

Though Raikkonen's feisty drive at Spa-Francorchamps - at least until his costly mistake almost within sight of the chequered flag - and late-season resurgence of sorts has given some hope that all is not yet lost, the man from Espoo knows he will need to come out of the blocks fighting from the word 'go' in 2009 if he is not to be totally overshadowed by Massa again. Only then will we know if the real Kimi Raikkonen is back in the building - or has gone for good.

...........

Top ten F1 drivers: 5th - Robert Kubica.

Mon 24 Nov, 11:53 AM

Robert Kubica takes fifth place in your vote for the top F1 driver of the year.

After asking you to vote for your leading drivers from the 2008 Formula 1 World Championship season, the time has come to start the countdown to the driver you voted the top star of 2008.

Over the next ten weekdays, we will be revealing the top ten in reverse order, with the winner being revealed on Friday, 28 November.

More than 45,000 votes were cast in the F1 poll, with each driver's average score out of ten then being calculated to decide the winner.

F1 Driver of the Year - Fifth place:
Name: Robert Kubica
Team: BMW Sauber
Car: BMW Sauber F1.08
Wins: 1
Podiums: 7
Pole positions: 1
Fastest laps: 0
Championship points: 75
Championship position: 4th

If it was a surprise that Robert Kubica began the 2008 Formula 1 World Championship campaign as an unexpected and unlikely title candidate, it was perhaps even more so that seven races in he was leading the standings - and the fact that he ultimately slipped back to fourth position at the close was entirely a reflection of the drop-off in the competitiveness of his car rather than anything to do with his driving.

Whilst eventual champion Lewis Hamilton and runner-up Felipe Massa - both of whom Kubica comfortably the measure for much of the year - and their teams made costly mistakes left, right and centre, Kubica and BMW Sauber rarely made any, the Pole's only significant error coming when he spun third place away in the torrential downpour of the British Grand Prix at Silverstone. Given the conditions and his clean sheet for the remainder of the season, though, that was more than excusable.

If there was any driver on the grid that managed to squeeze 110 per cent out of his car week-in, week-out, it was the one behind the wheel of the #4 entry, and that he thoroughly overshadowed Nick Heidfeld - a man dubbed 'Quick Nick' - in the sister F1.08 for the majority of the campaign was testament to just how well he performed.

Kubica sensationally almost stole pole position from under the nose of Hamilton in the season curtain-raiser Down Under in Melbourne, and though that grand prix would ultimately end in disappointment following contact with Williams' Kazuki Nakajima, the 23-year-old was back with a bang for round two in Malaysia, storming to the runner-up spot and just one race later still registering BMW's maiden pole position in the top flight in its own right in Bahrain, adding another podium position to his spoils the following day.

Solid performances in Spain and Turkey were the precursor to a brilliant second place in Monaco - the glittering jewel in F1's crown - as he split Hamilton and Massa at the chequered flag, and then, only a fortnight later, the crowning glory of his own season, with an inspired if slightly fortuitous victory, again a first for BMW, in the Canadian Grand Prix in Montreal after Hamilton and Kimi Raikkonen collided in the pit-lane. The first of his countrymen ever to compete at the pinnacle of international motorsport, it was a truly momentous breakthrough achievement, and one that propelled him to the top of the drivers' table.

Though he would keep himself in the fight by dint of a string of stand-out showings from thereon in, however, there would be no further triumphs for the man from Kraków, and indeed rostrums only at Valencia, Monza and Fuji, on each occasion clearly the result of a driver transcending the abilities of the equipment beneath him.

Elsewhere there were thinner pickings, and it was particularly cruel that having battled so hard for so long to keep in touch, Kubica lost third place in the final reckoning to Raikkonen, being overtaken by a driver who had rarely shone season-long - a clear sign that in the current age of F1, you are only ever as good as the machinery at your disposal.

As BMW fell evermore away from Ferrari and McLaren's pace over the second half of the campaign - even slipping behind Renault in the last few races - Kubica's frustration became palpable, as he was increasingly willing to criticise the team in public and began to suggest that the squad's efforts to help Heidfeld overcome his qualifying malaise had been at the expense of his own title ambitions. The way he un-lapped himself from Hamilton on the penultimate tour of the Brazilian Grand Prix at Interlagos - in so doing very nearly losing the Briton the championship - was petulant indeed.

Whether BMW's focus on Heidfeld ultimately did cost the former World Series by Renault Champion the trophy is doubtful, but the Munich and Hinwil-based concern knows it must maintain the pace year-long in 2009 if the man with whom Dr Mario Theissen admitted 'the working relationship was not always easy' in 2008 is to be rather more placated second time around.

*****************

Top ten F1 drivers: 4th - Lewis Hamilton.

Tue 25 Nov, 11:23 AM

Lewis Hamilton takes fourth place in your vote for the top F1 driver of the year.
After asking you to vote for your leading drivers from the 2008 Formula 1 World Championship season, the time has come to start the countdown to the driver you voted the top star of 2008.

Over the next ten weekdays, we will be revealing the top ten in reverse order, with the winner being revealed on Friday, 28 November.

More than 45,000 votes were cast in the F1 poll, with each driver's average score out of ten then being calculated to decide the winner.

F1 Driver of the Year - Fifth place:
Name: Lewis Hamilton
Team: McLaren-Mercedes
Car: McLaren-Mercedes MP4-23
Wins: 5
Podiums: 10
Pole positions: 7
Fastest laps: 1
Championship points: 98
Championship position: 1st

Perhaps surprisingly only fourth in the Crash.net readers' poll of the best Formula 1 drivers of 2008 is newly-crowned world champion Lewis Hamilton - the youngest man ever to lift the laurels at the pinnacle of international motor racing.

That Hamilton was less impressive than he had been during the course of his rookie season in the top flight in 2007 is arguable; that he endured a mixed campaign second time around is not. For the McLaren-Mercedes star, 2008 was very much a year of peaks and troughs, and if most observers agree that the right man ultimately did clinch the crown, they are similarly unanimous that in order to do so he required more than a small degree of luck.

The 23-year-old began the season in imperious fashion, converting pole position into victory in the curtain-raiser Down Under in Melbourne, and history holds that more often than not, he who wins the first grand prix of the year generally goes on to win the championship too. Hamilton maintained that tradition - but boy did he make it hard work for himself.

Following his Australian success, there were four further triumphs over the remainder of the campaign, and a couple of them - Monaco and Silverstone - were quite legendary drives, and saw the Stevenage-born ace accomplish two of his boyhood dreams. Victory in front of his adoring home fans in the teeming rain of the British Grand Prix was quite possibly Hamilton's best performance of the season, as he didn't so much drive away from all of his pursuers as completely out-class them, ascending to a higher plane that nobody else came even close to attaining.

He also reached the top step of the rostrum in the German Grand Prix at Hockenheim - another virtuoso showing, as McLaren's risky strategy relied heavily upon Hamilton producing a Michael Schumacher-esque series of qualifying laps in order to pull off the eventual result - and in the Chinese Grand Prix in Shanghai, when a peerless performance left Ferrari quite literally gasping for breath.

Elsewhere, though, his season was blighted by a succession of at times inexplicable errors, most notably catastrophically running into the back of the stationary Ferrari of defending world champion Kimi Raikkonen at the end of the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve's pit-lane during the Canadian Grand Prix in Montreal. Further precious points were lost in Japan, when what can only be described as a drastic effort to atone for a poor getaway saw Hamilton leave his braking impossibly late into the first corner at Fuji Speedway and almost decimate half the field in the process.

Bahrain was another example of a lack of clear thinking, when after being demoted on the grid the 2006 GP2 Series Champion clattered into the back of sworn rival and former team-mate Fernando Alonso on only lap two, going on to take the chequered flag an unlucky but perhaps appropriate 13th.

There were also snipes from a number of other drivers in the wake of his robust driving style in fighting his way up through the order in the Italian Grand Prix at Monza, and some believe Robert Kubica un-lapping himself from Hamilton in the closing stages of the final race of the season in Brazil - in so doing very nearly costing the Briton the trophy - was a way of teaching him a lesson that such behaviour will not be tolerated in the future, and that his rivals are every bit as willing to play hard and aggressive in return.

Indeed, Hamilton's drive at Interlagos appeared at times to be not so much cautious as indifferent, as he wrapped up the laurels in somewhat ignominious fashion, only moving into the fifth place he so desperately needed two corners from home at the expense of Timo Glock's ailing Toyota. One lap fewer and the nine-time grand prix winner would not have been world champion, but then equally, had he not been controversially stripped of a sensational victory in the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa-Francorchamps two months earlier, he would not have needed to worry in São Paulo at all.

The right man did ultimately win, then - just - but if Lewis Hamilton is to successfully defend his crown in 2009, he can ill afford to be as inconsistent again.

+++++++++++++++

Top ten F1 drivers: 3rd - Fernando Alonso.

Wed 26 Nov, 11:08 AM

Fernando Alonso takes third place in your vote for the top F1 driver of the year.
After asking you to vote for your leading drivers from the 2008 Formula 1 World Championship season, the time has come to start the countdown to the driver you voted the top star of 2008.

Over the next ten weekdays, we will be revealing the top ten in reverse order, with the winner being revealed on Friday, 28 November.

More than 45,000 votes were cast in the F1 poll, with each driver's average score out of ten then being calculated to decide the winner.

F1 Driver of the Year - Third place:
Name: Fernando Alonso
Team: Renault
Car: Renault R28
Wins: 2
Podiums: 3
Pole positions: 0
Fastest laps: 0
Championship points: 61
Championship position: 5th

A handful of races into the 2008 Formula 1 World Championship, Fernando Alonso was publicly bemoaning the lack of competitiveness of his Renault and describing it as only the eighth-quickest car on the grid - out of ten.

Fast forward several months, and the same Alonso notched up more points over the second half of the season than any other driver - meaning had the title been determined by the final nine races alone, he would have clinched his third championship crown. How times change.

Qualifying a lowly eleventh for the curtain-raiser Down Under in Melbourne was an indication of just how much work lay ahead for the Régie over the balance of the campaign, and only the Spaniard's determination and canny ability to stay out of trouble enabled him to claim fourth place at the chequered flag. The problem was, until the Hungarian Grand Prix almost five months later, in terms of results that was about as good as it got.

More happily, whilst Renault's fortunes took a while to improve, the pace did at least step up a gear, with Alonso pulling arguably the lap of the season out of the bag in front of his adoring home fans in Barcelona to line up a barely-believable second on the grid for the Spanish Grand Prix in April, ahead of title protagonists Felipe Massa and Robert Kubica and eventual world champion and former McLaren-Mercedes team-mate Lewis Hamilton. Though the engine would go on to let the 27-year-old down during the actual race, it was nevertheless a sign that things were on the up.

Indeed, only three times in 18 outings did the man from Oviedo fail to make the top ten on the starting grid - and on one of those occasions, in Singapore, it was completely out of his hands, with some observers having even tipped him to steal pole position. What's more, Alonso was the only driver in the field to out-qualify his team-mate - rookie Nelsinho Piquet - in every single race. If anyone had any remaining doubts about just how well the 21-time grand prix winner performed in 2008 and how strongly his motivation continued to burn with an uncompetitive car at his disposal, that statistic alone should have put them firmly to bed.

Whilst on-track results were relatively sparse over the first half of the year - Alonso counting a paltry 13 points from the opening ten grands prix - over the remaining eight he notched up 48, never finishing lower than fourth and in Singapore and Japan in particular producing two of the very finest showings of his glittering F1 career. In the former the double world champion refused to let an engine failure in qualifying sway his focus, as he took full advantage of a safety car period in the sport's inaugural night race to bring himself into play using all of his guile, experience and speed.

If it was an unexpected victory, it was nonetheless a wholly merited one, and he followed it up just a fortnight later with a second consecutive success at Fuji, atoning for an error in the same race twelve months previously that had likely cost him a third successive drivers' trophy, and a result that proved Renault were back - and back to stay.

The runner-up spot to an untouchable Massa in the season-ending Brazilian Grand Prix at Interlagos was a similarly sublime performance, and one that enabled Alonso to leapfrog Heikki Kovalainen - the man who had replaced him at McLaren - and BMW-Sauber's Nick Heidfeld to fifth place in the final standings.

Given where he and the team had begun proceedings in 2008, it was a superb outcome, and one that had many of the sport's experts lauding the Asturian as the best and most complete driver in F1 once more - and one who had banished the 'spoiled brat' reputation that, rightly or wrongly, he had come to be labelled with by the media during his time at Woking the previous year.

Having pledged his future to the French concern for at least another season - even if the rumours of an eventual switch to Ferrari persist - should Renault maintain its progress over the winter months, there is no reason to suggest that Fernando Alonso will not hit the ground running in 2009 as a genuine championship contender. After what he has been through in 2008, it is the least his talent deserves.

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Formula 1 » Top ten F1 drivers: 2nd - Felipe Massa.

Thursday, 27th November 2008

Felipe Massa takes second place in your vote for the top F1 driver of the year.

After asking you to vote for your leading drivers from the 2008 Formula 1 World Championship season, the time has come to start the countdown to the driver you voted the top star of 2008.

Over the next ten weekdays, we will be revealing the top ten in reverse order, with the winner being revealed on Friday, 28 November.

More than 45,000 votes were cast in the F1 poll, with each driver's average score out of ten then being calculated to decide the winner.

F1 Driver of the Year – Second place:
Name: Felipe Massa
Team: Ferrari
Car: Ferrari F2008
Wins: 6
Podiums: 10
Pole positions: 6
Fastest laps: 3
Championship points: 97
Championship position: 2nd

Felipe Massa both won and lost the 2008 Formula 1 World Drivers' Championship on the final lap of the final race of the season in front of his adoring home fans in Brazil – but despite the crushing disappointment that ultimately befell him, he will arguably emerge an even stronger driver still because of it in 2009.

The Brazilian entered the campaign in most observers' eyes as the number two at Ferrari to reigning world champion team-mate Kimi Raikkonen, the Finn having largely had the measure of the sister scarlet pilot for the majority of 2007. Though Raikkonen again began the year looking the quicker out of the blocks of the pair, whilst his challenge soon ran out of steam, Massa rapidly proved that he was in it for the long run – and developed into the title contender few had genuinely thought he was capable of being.

A collision with the Red Bull Racing of David Coulthard in the curtain-raising Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne followed by a spin whilst endeavouring to keep pace with Raikkonen a week later in Malaysia left Massa with nul points on the board, however, and just two races into the campaign an ignominious start had again brought the critics out in their droves.

Then, however, came Bahrain – where the São Paulista was the defending winner, and where he impressively overcame his jittery opening to the season to once again stamp his authority on proceedings with a flawless victory to get his challenge off the mark. There followed a trio of further rostrum finishes – including a third successive triumph in the Turkish Grand Prix in Istanbul, a race that Massa has all-but made his own since 2006 – and all of a sudden the man who only a matter of weeks earlier had been written off altogether was back in the fight with a vengeance.

Ironically, it was Raikkonen's bad luck in having to surrender first place to his team-mate in the French Grand Prix mid-season with a loose exhaust that seemed to be the catalyst to ignite Massa's own push for glory, and propelled the 27-year-old into the lead of the drivers' standings. From that point onwards, the Finn would not triumph again. The Brazilian did so three times.

Over the second half of the campaign, Massa became embroiled in a fraught scrap with McLaren-Mercedes rival Lewis Hamilton for the drivers' crown, the pair of them more often than not the class of the field and increasingly turning the title chase into a two-horse affair. Both men endured the slings and arrows of outrageous misfortune on more than one occasion, and both at some point or other became drawn into the media frenzy that closely tracked their battle.

Massa was widely pilloried following his abject performance in the British Grand Prix at Silverstone – spinning an unprecedented five times in the rain en route to a lowly 13th spot at the chequered flag – but he answered those same critics with aplomb on home turf at Interlagos, proving to be uncatchable in the very conditions in which he was supposed not to be able to drive.
The eleven-time grand prix-winner was also peerless in both Hungary and Valencia, in the former being desperately unlucky to be deprived of victory almost within sight of the chequered flag having not put a foot wrong all race. The ten points that he lost that day, his supporters point out, would have comfortably made him world champion. So, undoubtedly, would the ten that went begging in Singapore when the Scuderia's faulty refuelling system struck again – with calamitous consequences.

Question marks remain, however, with off-colour performances at Spa-Francorchamps and in Shanghai arguably earning Massa six points more than he deserved, and his driving in the Japanese Grand Prix at Fuji Speedway – clattering clumsily into both Lewis Hamilton and Sébastien Bourdais during the course of the 67-lap encounter – was reckless to say the least.

And then, in the most dramatic of final showdowns, there was Brazil, where quite simply nobody could live with him. To miss out on the laurels by just a single point having driven his heart out and done all that he possibly could was cruel indeed, but he will bounce back. Have no doubt – Felipe Massa, the man many believed would never challenge for the world championship, will be an F1 title contender for many, many years to come.

******************

Formula 1 » Top ten F1 drivers: 1st - Sebastian Vettal .

Friday, 28th November 2008

Sebastian Vettel takes first place in your vote for the top F1 driver of the year.

After asking you to vote for your leading drivers from the 2008 Formula 1 World Championship season, the time has reveal the driver you voted the top star of 2008.

More than 45,000 votes were cast in the F1 poll, with each driver's average score out of ten then being calculated to decide the winner.

F1 Driver of the Year – First place:
Name: Sebastian Vettel
Team: Scuderia Toro Rosso
Car: Scuderia Toro Rosso-Ferrari STR2B/STR3
Wins: 1
Podiums: 1
Pole positions: 1
Fastest laps: 0
Championship points: 35
Championship position: 8th

He finished just eighth in the 2008 Formula 1 World Championship, ascended the podium only once and qualified higher than sixth on merely a single occasion – but still Sebastian Vettel did enough to be voted Crash.net readers' best driver of the year.

The young German – dubbed ‘the next Michael Schumacher' in some circles – was competing in his first full season in the top flight, having made his grand prix debut with BMW-Sauber in place of the convalescing Robert Kubica at Indianapolis last year.

Even then, however, there had been clear signs that his was a talent that was really quite special, as Vettel joined the elite club of drivers to have scored points on their maiden appearance. Having joined STR for the final seven races of 2007, he then even more impressively went on to run up in third place in the torrential downpour of the Japanese Grand Prix at Fuji Speedway, and just a week later achieved the small Faenza-based squad's highest finish of the year with fourth place in the Chinese Grand Prix in Shanghai. A star, indubitably, had been born.

That being the case, much was expected of both Vettel and the improving STR in 2008, but in four of the first eight grands prix, he could qualify no better than 18th. What had gone wrong? The answer was that Toro Rosso had begun the campaign with a development of the car with which it had ended the previous season, ahead of bravely introducing the new, Red Bull Racing-based STR3 at the Monaco Grand Prix in May.

In endeavouring to compensate for a car that was clearly not up to the task and lagging behind its direct competition, Vettel was too often guilty of over-driving, and in three of the first four races the 21-year-old failed to even make it beyond the opening lap. The man who had been touted as F1's latest superstar was suddenly in danger of becoming a has-been before he had even made it.

And then came Monaco, and a brilliant drive around the narrow, tortuous streets of the Principality earned Vettel both his and the team's first points of the year with a strong fifth place. The season had finally begun, the momentum was beginning to flow again – and from that point on there would be no looking back.

From the British Grand Prix onwards, the man from Heppenheim only once failed to make the top ten on the starting grid, and over the balance of the campaign he out-qualified record-breaking four-time Champ Car king team-mate Sébastien Bourdais by a margin of 13 to five.

In the last seven outings, Vettel finished inside the top six in all races bar one, and in Valencia, Spa-Francorchamps, Singapore and Fuji he drove with all the composure and brio of a seasoned grand prix veteran. In the Brazilian Grand Prix finale at Interlagos the former German Formula BMW Champion was sublime as he ran up in second place for a while, and just over a lap from home he boldly and opportunistically overtook the McLaren-Mercedes of eventual title-winner Lewis Hamilton to pinch what would be fourth place at the flag.

The undisputed highlight of Vettel's 2008 season, though, was Monza, when the driver who was already the sport's youngest-ever points-scorer added to that achievement by becoming its youngest pole position sitter and grand prix winner too over the course of a weekend that firmly installed him as a world champion in-waiting.

That he stormed to the top spot on the starting grid could perhaps have been explained away by the uncharacteristic weather conditions that caught out many – Hamilton and defending F1 World Champion Kimi Raikkonen amongst them – but Vettel's performance on race day, not putting a foot wrong and never once letting Heikki Kovalainen in the sister Silver Arrow get close enough to apply any pressure, was a drive of pure genius.

That, as much as anything else he achieved in 2008, was more than sufficient to mark Sebastian Vettel out as one of the key pretenders to Hamilton's throne over the years to come. Red Bull Racing has work to do indeed if it is to provide the erstwhile F3 Euroseries Vice-Champion with a car to match his evident potential in 2009.

Friday, October 10, 2008

satu lagi.. Indonesia ku makin suram rasanya

satu lagi artikel forward-an dari sahabat..
kalo baca ini, bisa gila rasanya.. but wait.. kenapa musti gila.. uang di bank engga lebih dari 10juta.. ai engga punya investasi di mana2.. soo.. paling2 imbasnya ke sembako.. sembako bakalan menggila lagi engga yaa.. T_T
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Monday, September 29, 2008
PENYELAMATAN BANK- BANK US YANG (HAMPIR) AMBRUK

KONSISTENSI
Berapa bank dan perusahaan keuangan sudah ambruk di US? Countrywide Financial, IndyMac, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG, Washington Mutual, Merrill Lynch. Mereka ini bukan institusi keuangan yang kecil. Citigroup sudah jadi shitty group.

Dua minggu terakhir ini petinggi di Washington panik. Kita bisa melihat Bush, Bernanke, dan Hank Paulson berbicara di TV. Dan seperti biasa, pemerintahan Bush menggesa senat dan kongress untuk menandatangani undang-undang. Gaya lamanya seperti ketika mau menyerang Iraq. Kali ini topiknya penyelamatan ekonomi US dan dunia. Seperti halnya kasus penyerangan Iraq; usaha-usaha penyelamatan ekonomi, tidak akan mengenai sasaran dan akan sia-sia bagi rakyat US.

Politikus dimana saja kebanyakan punya daya ingat lemah atau penipu atau dua-duanya. Kalau anda tidak tahu, maka anda akan heran kenapa tiba-tiba minggu lalu Hank Paulson dan Ben Bernanke berteriak-teriak minta mandat dari komisi keuangan senat untuk melakukan penyelamatan ekonomi (baca: bank-bank yang hampir bangkrut), pada hal sebelumnya mereka tidak banyak cerita.

Seperti biasanya di EOWI kami selalu mengatakan bahwa: “Ada penipu kecil, penipu ulung, politikus dan Cut Zahara Fonna”

Kita lihat apa yang dikatakan para politikus:

Greenspan, Oktober 2006 mantan ketua bank sentral US: “Most negatives in housing are probably behind us...”

28 Maret 2007 - Ben Bernanke ketua bank sentral US: "At this juncture . . . the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime markets seems likely to be contained,"

20 April 2007 - Henry Paulson (mentri keuangan): "I don't see (subprime mortgage market troubles) imposing a serious problem. I think it's going to be largely contained....All the signs I look at show the housing market is at or near the bottom,"

20 Juni 2007 - Ben Bernanke: (the subprime fallout) ``will not affect the economy overall.''

10 Agustus 2007 - Bush: “The American economy is the envy of the world, and we need to keep it that way,....I'm not an economist..........The fundamentals of our economy are strong. ... Job creation is strong. Real after-tax wages are on the rise. Inflation is low."

15 Oktober 2007 - Bernanke: "It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve - nor would it be appropriate - to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions."

20 Juli 2008 - Paulson: "it's a safe banking system, a sound banking system. Our regulators are on top of it. This is a very manageable situation."

10 Agustus 2008 - Paulson: ``We have no plans to insert money into either of those two institutions.” (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac)

Comentar EOWI: Realitanya, tanggal 8 September 2008 - Fannie and Freddie dinasionalisasikan. Uang pembayar pajak termakan US$ 1 - 1.5 trilliun. Lebih dari US$ 5 triliun berpotensi masuk ke neraca keuangan negara, minus tentunya. Rupanya Hank Paulson sudah lupa apa yang dikatakannya sebulan sebelumnya. Atau dia seorang penipu. Ucapan Paulson mengenai tidak perlunya campur tangan pemerintah atas saham seperti yang dikatakannya tanggal 10 Agustus 2008 bukan yang pertama. Sebelumnya dia menceramahi petinggi Cina dengan mengatakan:

"The reality of the situation is that an open, competitive, and liberalized financial market can effectively allocate scarce resources in a manner that promotes stability and prosperity far better than governmental intervention..." (7 Maret 2007 China-US Strategic Dialogue summit).

Apapun yang politikus katakan sebelumnya, seakan hilang pada tanggal 16 September 2008 dan sesudahnya.

16 September 2008, $85 milyar uang pembayar pajak tersangkut lagi di penyelamatan AIG.

19 September 2008, Ben Bernanke dan Henry Paulson minta $700 milyar untuk pembelian surat-surat hutang yang busuk, sebagai jalan penyelamatan kebekuan liquiditas.

19 September 2008 – Paulson: "We're talking hundreds of billions of dollars - this needs to be big enough to make a real difference and get at the heart of the problem,......This is the way we stabilize the system." (komentar EOWI: bohong, kalian punya agenda lain).


19 September 2008, Bernanke: "most severe financial crisis" in the post-World War II era. Investment banks are seeing tremendous runs on their cash. Without action, they will fail soon." (komentar EOWI: bohong, kalian punya agenda lain).


21 September 2008 – Paulson: "The credit markets are still very fragile right now and frozen. We need to deal with this and deal with it quickly. The financial security of all Americans ... depends on our ability to restore our financial institutions to a sound footing." (komentar EOWI: kami tidak percaya, kalian punya agenda lain).


23 September 2008 – Paulson: "We must [enact a program quickly] in order to avoid a continuing series of financial institution failures and frozen credit markets that threaten American families' financial well-being, the viability of businesses, both small and large, and the very health of our economy," (komentar EOWI: kami tidak percaya, kalian punya agenda lain).


23 September 2008 – Bernanke: "My interest is solely for the strength and recovery of the U.S. economy," (komentar EOWI: kami tidak percaya, kalian punya agenda lain).

Seperti halnya dalih weapon of mass destruction untuk menyerang Iraq, usaha-usaha penyelamatan kali ini sama saja. Akan gagal, karena pelaku-pelakunya sama.

Kelakuan politikus untuk kasus Lehman ini belum nampak bohongnya, hanya terlihat tidak becus alias bego. Ini kata waper Yusuf Kalla pada tanggal 19 September 2008 dikutip oleh Kompas:

Wapres mengatakan, imbas terhadap bangkrutnya perusahaan-perusahaan raksasa dunia seperti Lehman Brothers juga tidak merugikan Indonesia, kecuali perusahaan-perusahaan Indonesia yang mendapat pinjaman kredit sehingga keuntungan perusahaannya akan terganggu. "Jadi, tidak ada dana Indonesia yang hilang dari sana," lanjut Wapres Kalla. [link: http://www.kompas.com/read/xml/2008/09/19/14412391/wapres.kasus.lehman.tidak.rugikan.indonesia]

Dan ini berita di Kompas seminggu kemudian berupa keluhan nasabah Citibank yang membeli produk Lehman:

”Saya investasi di produk itu sebesar 50.000 dollar AS pada bulan Juli 2007 lalu,” kata Vincent Lingga, Selasa (23/9) di Jakarta. Dia memperkirakan jumlah nasabah yang membeli produk Lehman Brothers jumlahnya mencapai puluhan orang.

Vincent mempertanyakan lemahnya pengawasan dari Bank Indonesia (BI) serta Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal dan Lembaga Keuangan (Bapepam-LK) terhadap surat berharga yang diterbitkan perusahaan sekuritas asing di Indonesia.
[link: http://www.kompas.com/read/xml/2008/09/24/0745115/investor.indonesia.dirugikan.lehman]

Setelah itu banyak berita mengenai orang-orang yang mengalami kerugian akibat runtuhnya Lehman. Belum tahu berapa yang kena kasus AIG. Kami tidak tahu apakah pak Kalla malu atau tidak.

MATERI PENYELAMATAN
Awalnya materi proposal penyelamatan krisis ekonomi ini hanya 3 lembar. Tentu saja membuat komisi ekonomi senat, terutama senator Shelby mengecam dengan keras (pura-pura atau serius, kami tidak tahu). Kalau 3 lembar artinya senat disuruh menandatangani cek kosong. Dari dengar pendapat antara Bernanke, Paulson dihadapan komisi ekonomi senat, materi proposal agak terbuka sedikit. Yang pasti jumlahnya $700 milyar, yang akan digunakan untuk membeli asset-asset beku yang tidak ada yang mau menyentuhnya. Nantinya asset-asset ini akan dijual kembali. Angka $700 milyar itu bisa bertambah nantinya.

Pertanyaannya, bagaimana cara menilai harga aset-asset beku dan busuk itu. Kalau kemahalan maka pembayar pajak dirugikan. Kalau kemurahan maka pembayar pajak akan diuntungkan. Opini EOWI: kalau pasar tidak mau menyentuh karena tidak tahu berapa harga wajarnya, bagaimana Paulson dan Bernanke tahu? Bukankah mereka beberapa waktu lalu yang bilang bahwa ekonomi baik-baik saja dan krisis sekarang ini terkendali. Tetapi hanya dalam selang beberapa bulan mereka mengatakan krisis sekarang ini tidak terkendali. Kalau mereka dulu tidak lebih tahu dari pasar, apa yag membuat mereka saat ini lebih tahu dari pasar? Pengalaman Jepang, Indonesia dan banyak negara lain menunjukkan pemerintah tidak akan mampu berbuat seperti yang kehendaki Paulson dan Bernanke.


YANG PRO
Siapakah yang pro kepada program penyelamatan ekonomi Hank Paulson? Investor Warren Buffet dan boss bond fund PIMCO, Bill Gross.

Kenapa Buffet setuju? Bahkan kata Buffet, kalau pemerintah US tidak mengambil tindakan apa-apa, maka akan terjadi economic Pearl Harbor, kehancuran ekonomi. Pertanyaan kenapa Buffet setuju adalah menarik. EOWI berhasil menggali beberapa data mengenai Berkshire Hathaway, perusahaan keuangan Buffet. Ini sebabnya.

Menurut neraca keuangan Berkshire Hathaway Juni 2008, ada $8.8 milyar (nilai nominal) Credit Default Obligation – ada kenaikan 88% dibandingkan bulan Desember 2007. Barang busuk ini akan tertolong kalau bisa dijual ke pemerintah di harga nominalnya.

Di dalam neraca keuangannya ada $39.9 milyar option indeks, yang jumlahnya naik 14% dari posisi pada bulan Desember 2007. Buffet tentu mengharapkan harga saham naik sehingga optionnya tidak hangus.

Buffet baru-baru ini menginvestasikan $5 milyar ke Goldman Sachs. Mungkin Buffet berharap bursa saham akan rally sampai akhir tahun dan seterusnya karena senat menyetujui rencana penyelamatan ekonomi ini, plus investasi $5 milyar sebagai pancingan para Buffet Fans Club untuk terjun ke bursa kembali. Dengan demikian put option yang dijualnya hangus (dia untung) dan CDO busuknya dibeli pemerintah. Di samping itu transaksi ini termasuk murah dan tidak bisa dilakukan oleh investor biasa (retail). Pertama yang diperolehnya adalah perpetual preferred stock dengan bunga kupon 10%. Artinya dia akan memperoleh prioritas teringgi atas dividen. Orang lain tidak akan dapat dividen sebelum Buffet. Ada lagi tambahan pemanisnya, yaitu warran (dengan jatuh tempon tahun 2011) untuk membeli saham Goldman Sachs di harga $115. Dan saat ini warran semacam itu harganya $45 per lembar.

Di EOWI kami sering bersebrangan dengan Buffet, misalnya perkara emas. Buffet pernah bilang bahwa emas tidak menghasilkan apa-apa. Kami tidak perduli Buffet karena kami bukan anggota Buffet Fans Club.

Investor lain yang pro terhadap program penyelamatan ekonomi ialah Bill Gross. Semua orang tahu bahwa Bill Gross punya eksposur yang besar terhadap surat-surat hutang busuk. Kalau pemerintah mau beli diharga nominalnya, atau negosiasi, dia terselamatkan. Sederhana.


YANG KONTRA
Rakyat US, pasti tidak suka terhadap proposal penyelamatan (bail-out) ini. Alasannya karena sudah muak terhadap CEO dan para eksekutif bank yang gaji dan benefitnya selangit. Kalau para eksekutif ini berbuat salah, biarkan saja mereka yang menanggung. Jangan dibebankan kepada pembayar pajak. Fax, telepon dan email membanjiri para senator US menekan agar tidak menyetujui proposal Paulson & Bernanke. Ini pengakuan salah satu senator, Dianne Feinstein, bahwa dia menerima 50 ribu telepon dan surat yang menyatakan ketidak setujuannya terhadap proposal penyelamatan ekonomi.
http://www.rocklintoday.com/news/templates/community_news.asp?articleid=6605&zoneid=4

Kami pikir masih banyak lagi senator-senator yang kebanjiran email, fax dan telepon yang mengungkapkan perasaan yang senada.

Nouriel Roubini ekonom terkemuka di US dan professor di New York University, menyebut proposal Paulson sangat memalukan, disgrace, http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/253762/rge_conference_call_on_the_economic_and_financial_outlookand_why_the_treasury_tarp_bailout_is_flawed. Dan hasilnya adalah kegagalan.

190 lebih ekonom terkemuka US menulis surat terbuka http://www.dailypaul.com/node/64616, yang isinya juga menentang program Paulson.

Ternyata di kalangan the Fed, tidak semua sepakat dengan proposal Paulson. Salah satu presiden dari the Fed, Richard Fisher, ternyata berpandangan negatif terhadap proposal Paulson http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=abK2j4XZsBuU. Katanya di hadapan New York University Money Marketeers Club:

``The seizures and convulsions we have experienced in the debt and equity markets have been the consequences of a sustained orgy of excess and reckless behavior, not a too-tight monetary policy,''

William Isaac, mantan ketua the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp juga meragukan bahwa proposal Paulson akan berhasil.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=amvlLMejTsM0


KOMENTAR EOWI
EOWI berpendapat bahwa proposal Paulson, baik yang asli atau yang akan disetujui senat, tidak akan berhasil. Berapa dana yang telah dikeluarkan untuk penyelamatan Freddie dan Fannie, AIG. Belum lagi bantuan liquiditas yang telah dikucurkan the Fed ($300 milyar?). Terus apa artinya $350 milyar plus $350 milyar jika nanti diperlukan. Jepang 20 tahun lalu mengalami hal yang sama dan bertindak dengan cara yang sama. Sampai sekarang indeks Nikkei hanya 20% dari puncaknya yang terletak di kisaran 40,000.

Kemarin dan hari ini ada 4 institusi keuangan dunia yang terjengkang:
-Bradford & Bingley harus dinasionalisasi pemerintah Inggris. Assetnya harus dipecah-pecah.
-Fortis Group diselamatkan pemerintah Benelux (Belgium, Netherland & Luxemburg)
-Hypo Real Estate, pemerintah Jerman harus mengeluarkan $50 milyar dana penyelamatan.
-Bank Wachovia harus menyingkir dari bursa saham dan assetnya dibeli Citigroup

Tahukah anda bahwa institusi-institusi itu termasuk di dalam daftar larangan short-sell? Kalau memang fundamentalnya lemah pasti akan gugur dan pemegang saham akan mampus.

Malam ini (waktu Indonesia Bagian Barat), senat akan melakukan voting atas usulan Paulson. Apapun hasilnya, tidak akan mempengaruhi ekonomi US dan dunia saat ini.

Sekian dulu, kalau anda punya uang di bank lebih dari Rp 100 juta, mungkin ada baiknya anda tarik. Walaupun Yusuf Kalla mengatakan bahwa Indonesia tidak akan kena pengaruh gonjang-ganjing krisis moneter dunia (US), bukan kah Paulson, Bernanke dan Bush mengatakan hal yang serupa untuk negaranya. Kenyataannya banyak bank yang bangkrut tidak lama kemudian.

Jaga kesehatan anda dan tabungan anda. Jangan frustrasi dan kemudian membunuh anak-istri anda, serta bunuh diri. Dunia masih menjanjikan peluang..........

29 September 2008.

Disclaimer: Ekonomi (dan investasi) bukan sains dan tidak pernah dibuktikan secara eksperimen; tulisan ini dimaksudkan sebagai hiburan dan bukan sebagai anjuran berinvestasi oleh sebab itu penulis tidak bertanggung jawab atas segala kerugian yang diakibatkan karena mengikuti informasi dari tulisan ini. Akan tetapi jika anda beruntung karena penggunaan informasi di tulisan ini, EOWI dengan suka hati kalau anda mentraktir EOWI makan-makan.

Source: Ekonomi Orang Waras dan Investasi (EOWI)

Krismon AS, Dollar AS, Indonesia ku gimana?

ah... sore ini, lebih tepatnya jam 5.45 WIB sahabat ai kasih kabar kalo dia ditelpon bokapnya untuk hati2 karena di TV baru saja di Informasikan kalo Dollar udah nembus ke angka 10.500..

gw resah.. langsung resah, jauh lebih resah dari pada mikirin title WDCnya Kimi yang makin ke laut...

giling, apakah semua rakyat indonesia sebegitu ketakutannya atas dampak krismon di AS.. apa jangan2 itu hanya ulah para spekulan yang bener2 cuman mikirin keuntungan sesaat.. sebenernya seberapa parahnya tingkat kepercayaan rakyat ini atas negaranya.. lalu apa hubungannya dengan krismon di AS.. pan Indonesia engga Singapura yang menjadi salah satu pusat pemutaran uang di dunia.. Apakah Indonesia hanya akan kembali menjadi korban para spekulan seperti tahun 1997..

kalo saja negara ini dikelola bukan dengan hukum ekonomi yang kapitalis, mungkin kita semua bisa selamat.. apa mungkin kita bisa keluar dari kapitalisme yang sudah mendarah daging di negara ini..

btw, dari kemaren ai masih bingung kenapa gara2 kridit perumahan AS macet berat kok bisa menggoyang perekonomian.. teman ada forward artikel dari Jawa Pos yang bisa menjawab kebingungan ini.. (lumayan bisa jadi arsip, kali aja entuh kembar di rumah pada saatnya mau tau ai bisa langsung cerita panjang lebar.. :p )

ini beritanya..
_________________________

Juntrungan Krisis Subprime di Amerika Serikat
Kalau Langit Masih Kurang Tinggi

Oleh: Dahlan Iskan

Meski saya bukan ekonom, banyak pembaca tetap minta saya ''menceritakan' ' secara awam mengenai hebatnya krisis keuangan di AS saat ini. Seperti juga, banyak pembaca tetap bertanya tentang sakit liver, meski mereka tahu saya bukan dokter. Saya coba:

Semua perusahaan yang sudah go public lebih dituntut untuk terus berkembang di semua sektor. Terutama labanya. Kalau bisa, laba sebuah perusahaan publik terus meningkat sampai 20 persen setiap tahun. Soal caranya bagaimana, itu urusan kiat para CEO dan
direkturnya.

Pemilik perusahaan itu (para pemilik saham) biasanya sudah tidak mau tahu lagi apa dan bagaimana perusahaan tersebut dijalankan. Yang mereka mau tahu adalah dua hal yang terpenting saja: harga sahamnya harus terus naik dan labanya harus terus meningkat.

Perusahaan publik di AS biasanya dimiliki ribuan atau ratusan ribu orang, sehingga mereka tidak peduli lagi dengan tetek-bengek perusahaan mereka.

Mengapa mereka menginginkan harga saham harus terus naik? Agar kalau para pemilik saham itu ingin menjual saham, bisa dapat harga lebih tinggi dibanding waktu
mereka beli dulu: untung.

Mengapa laba juga harus terus naik? Agar, kalau mereka tidak ingin jual saham, setiap tahun mereka bisa dapat pembagian laba (dividen) yang kian banyak.

Soal cara bagaimana agar keinginan dua hal itu bisa terlaksana dengan baik, terserah pada CEO-nya. Maupakai cara kucing hitam atau cara kucing putih,terserah saja. Sudah ada hukum yang mengawasi cara kerja para CEO tersebut: hukum perusahaan, hukum pasar
modal, hukum pajak, hukum perburuhan, dan seterusnya.

Apakah para CEO yang harus selalu memikirkan dua hal itu merasa tertekan dan stres setiap hari? Bukankah sebuah perusahaan kadang bisa untung, tapi kadang bisa rugi?

Anehnya, para CEO belum tentu merasa terus-menerus diuber target. Tanpa disuruh pun para CEO sendiri memang juga menginginkannya. Mengapa? Pertama, agar dia tidak terancam kehilangan jabatan CEO. Kedua, agar dia mendapat bonus superbesar yang biasanya dihitung sekian persen dari laba dan pertumbuhan yang dicapai. Gaji dan bonus yang diterima para CEO perusahaan besar di AS bisa 100 kali lebih besar dari gaji Presiden George Bush. Mana bisa dengan gaji sebesar itu masih stres?

Keinginan pemegang saham dan keinginan para CEO dengan demikian seperti tumbu ketemu tutup: klop. Maka, semua perusahaan dipaksa untuk terus-menerus berkembang dan membesar. Kalau tidak ada jalan, harus dicarikan jalan lain. Kalau jalan lain tidak ditemukan, bikin jalan baru. Kalau bikin jalan baru ternyata sulit, ambil saja jalannya orang lain. Kalau tidak boleh diambil? Beli! Kalau tidak dijual? Beli dengan cara yang licik -dan kasar! Istilah populernya hostile take over.

Kalau masih tidak bisa juga, masih ada jalan aneh: minta politisi untuk bikinkan berbagai peraturan yang memungkinkan perusahaan bisa mendapat jalan.

Kalau perusahaan terus berkembang, semua orang happy. CEO dan para direkturnya happy karena dapat bonus yang mencapai Rp 500 miliar setahun. Para pemilik saham juga happy karena kekayaannya terus naik. Pemerintah happy karena penerimaan pajak yang terus membesar. Politisi happy karena dapat dukungan atau sumber dana.

Dengan gambaran seperti itulah ekonomi AS berkembang pesat dan kesejahteraan rakyatnya meningkat. Semua orang lantas mampu membeli kebutuhan hidupnya. Kulkas,
TV, mobil, dan rumah laku dengan kerasnya. Semakin banyak yang bisa membeli barang, ekonomi semakin maju lagi.

Karena itu, AS perlu banyak sekali barang. Barang apa saja. Kalau tidak bisa bikin sendiri, datangkan saja dari Tiongkok atau Indonesia atau negara lainnya. Itulah yang membuat Tiongkok bisa menjual barang apa saja ke AS yang bisa membuat Tiongkok punya cadangan devisa terbesar di dunia: USD 2 triliun!

Sudah lebih dari 60 tahun cara "membesarkan" perusahaan seperti itu dilakukan di AS dengan suksesnya. Itulah bagian dari ekonomi kapitalis. AS dengan kemakmuran dan kekuatan ekonominya lalu menjadi penguasa dunia.

Tapi, itu belum cukup.

Yang makmur harus terus lebih makmur. Punya toilet otomatis dianggap tidak cukup lagi: harus computerized!

Bonus yang sudah amat besar masih kurang besar. Laba yang terus meningkat harus terus mengejar langit. Ukuran perusahaan yang sudah sebesar gajah harus dibikin lebih jumbo. Langit, gajah, jumbo juga belum cukup.

Ketika semua orang sudah mampu beli rumah, mestinya tidak ada lagi perusahaan yang jual rumah. Tapi, karena perusahaan harus terus meningkat, dicarilah jalan agar penjualan rumah tetap bisa dilakukan dalam jumlah yang kian banyak. Kalau orangnya sudah punya rumah, harus diciptakan agar kucing atau anjingnya juga punya rumah. Demikian juga mobilnya.

Tapi, ketika anjingnya pun sudah punya rumah, siapa pula yang akan beli rumah?

Kalau tidak ada lagi yang beli rumah, bagaimana perusahaan bisa lebih besar? Bagaimana perusahaan penjamin bisa lebih besar? Bagaimana perusahaan alat-alat bangunan bisa lebih besar? Bagaimana bank bisa lebih besar? Bagaimana notaris bisa lebih besar? Bagaimana perusahaan penjual kloset bisa lebih besar? Padahal, doktrinnya, semua perusahaan harus semakin besar?

Ada jalan baru. Pemerintah AS-lah yang membuat jalan baru itu. Pada 1980, pemerintah bikin keputusan yang disebut ''Deregulasi Kontrol Moneter''. Intinya, dalam hal kredit rumah, perusahaan realestat diperbolehkan menggunakan variabel bunga. Maksudnya: boleh mengenakan bunga tambahan dari bunga yang sudah ditetapkan secara pasti. Peraturan baru itu berlaku dua tahun kemudian.

Inilah peluang besar bagi banyak sektor usaha: realestat, perbankan, asuransi, broker, underwriter, dan seterusnya. Peluang itulah yang dimanfaatkan perbankan secara nyata.

Begini ceritanya:

Sejak sebelum 1925, di AS sudah ada UU Mortgage. Yakni, semacam undang-undang kredit pemilikan rumah (KPR). Semua warga AS, asalkan memenuhi syarat tertentu, bisa mendapat mortgage (anggap saja sepertiKPR, meski tidak sama).

Misalnya, kalau gaji seseorang sudah Rp 100 juta setahun, boleh ambil mortgage untuk beli rumah seharga Rp 250 juta. Cicilan bulanannya ringan karena mortgage itu berjangka 30 tahun dengan bunga 6 persen setahun.

Negara-negara maju, termasuk Singapura, umumnya punya UU Mortgage. Yang terbaru adalah UU Mortgage di Dubai. Sejak itu, penjualan properti di Dubai naik 55 persen.
UU Mortgage tersebut sangat ketat dalam menetapkan syarat orang yang bisa mendapat mortgage.

Dengan keluarnya ''jalan baru'' pada 1980 itu, terbuka peluang untuk menaikkan bunga. Bisnis yang terkait dengan perumahan kembali hidup. Bank bisa dapat peluang bunga tambahan. Bank menjadi lebih agresif. Juga para broker dan bisnis lain yang terkait.

Tapi, karena semua orang sudah punya rumah, tetap saja ada hambatan. Maka, ada lagi ''jalan baru'' yang dibuat pemerintah enam tahun kemudian. Yakni, tahun 1986.

Pada 1986 itu, pemerintah menetapkan reformasi pajak. Salah satu isinya: pembeli rumah diberi keringanan pajak. Keringanan itu juga berlaku bagi pembelian rumah satu lagi. Artinya, meski sudah punya rumah,kalau mau beli rumah satu lagi, masih bisa dimasukkan dalam fasilitas itu.

Di negara-negara maju, sebuah keringanan pajak mendapat sambutan yang luar biasa. Di sana pajak memang sangat tinggi. Bahkan, seperti di Swedia atau Denmark , gaji seseorang dipajaki sampai 50 persen.Imbalannya, semua keperluan hidup seperti sekolah dan pengobatan gratis. Hari tua juga terjamin.

Dengan adanya fasilitas pajak itu, gairah bisnis rumah meningkat drastis menjelang 1990. Dan terus melejit selama 12 tahun berikutnya. Kredit yang disebut mortgage yang biasanya hanya USD 150 miliar setahun langsung menjadi dua kali lipat pada tahun berikutnya. Tahun-tahun berikutnya terus meningkat lagi. Pada 2004
mencapai hampir USD 700 miliar setahun.

Kata ''mortgage'' berasal dari istilah hukum dalam bahasa Prancis. Artinya: matinya sebuah ikrar. Itu agak berbeda dari kredit rumah. Dalam mortgage, Anda mendapat kredit. Lalu, Anda memiliki rumah. Rumah itu Anda serahkan kepada pihak yang memberi kredit. Anda boleh menempatinya selama cicilan Anda belum lunas.

Karena rumah itu bukan milik Anda, begitu pembayaran mortgage macet, rumah itu otomatis tidak bisa Anda tempati. Sejak awal ada ikrar bahwa itu bukan rumah Anda. Atau belum. Maka, ketika Anda tidak membayar cicilan, ikrar itu dianggap mati. Dengan demikian, Anda harus langsung pergi dari rumah tersebut.

Lalu, apa hubungannya dengan bangkrutnya investment banking seperti Lehman Brothers?

Gairah bisnis rumah yang luar biasa pada 1990-2004 itu bukan hanya karena fasilitas pajak tersebut. Fasilitas itu telah dilihat oleh ''para pelaku bisnis keuangan''
sebagai peluang untuk membesarkan perusahaan dan meningkatkan laba.

Warga terus dirangsang dengan berbagai iklan dan berbagai fasilitas mortgage. Jor-joran memberi kredit bertemu dengan jor-joran membeli rumah. Harga rumah dan tanah naik terus melebihi bunga bank.

Akibatnya, yang pintar bukan hanya orang-orang bank, tapi juga para pemilik rumah. Yang rumahnya sudah lunas, di-mortgage- kan lagi untuk membeli rumah berikutnya. Yang belum memenuhi syarat beli rumah pun bisa mendapatkan kredit dengan harapan toh harga rumahnya terus naik. Kalau toh suatu saat ada yang tidak bisa bayar, bank masih untung. Jadi, tidak ada kata takut dalam memberi kredit rumah.

Tapi, bank tentu punya batasan yang ketat sebagaimana diatur dalam undang-undang perbankan yang keras.

Sekali lagi, bagi orang bisnis, selalu ada jalan.

Jalan baru itu adalah ini: bank bisa bekerja sama dengan ''bank jenis lain'' yang disebut investment banking.

Apakah investment banking itu bank?

Bukan. Ia perusahaan keuangan yang ''hanya mirip'' bank. Ia lebih bebas daripada bank. Ia tidak terikat peraturan bank. Bisa berbuat banyak hal: menerima macam-macam ''deposito'' dari para pemilik uang, meminjamkan uang, meminjam uang, membeli perusahaan, membeli saham, menjadi penjamin, membeli rumah, menjual rumah, private placeman, dan apa pun yang orang bisa lakukan. Bahkan, bisa melakukan apa yang
orang tidak pernah memikirkan! Lehman Brothers, Bear Stern, dan banyak lagi adalah jenis investment banking itu.

Dengan kebebasannya tersebut, ia bisa lebih agresif. Bisa memberi pinjaman tanpa ketentuan pembatasan apa pun. Bisa membeli perusahaan dan menjualnya kapan
saja. Kalau uangnya tidak cukup, ia bisa pinjam kepada siapa saja: kepada bank lain atau kepada sesama investment banking. Atau, juga kepada orang-orang kaya
yang punya banyak uang dengan istilah ''personal banking''.

Saya sering kedatangan orang dari investment banking seperti itu yang menawarkan banyak fasilitas. Kalau saya mau menempatkan dana di sana , saya dapat bunga lebih baik dengan hitungan yang rumit. Biasanya saya tidak sanggup mengikuti hitung-hitungan yang canggih itu.

Saya orang yang berpikiran sederhana. Biasanya tamu-tamu seperti itu saya serahkan ke Dirut Jawa Pos Wenny Ratna Dewi. Yang kalau menghitung angka lebih cepat dari kalkulator. Kini saya tahu, pada dasarnya dia tidak menawarkan fasilitas, tapi cari pinjaman untuk memutar cash-flow.

Begitu agresifnya para investment banking itu, sehingga kalau dulu hanya orang yang memenuhi syarat (prime) yang bisa dapat mortgage, yang kurang memenuhi syarat pun (sub-prime) dirangsang untuk minta mortgage.

Di AS, setiap orang punya rating. Tinggi rendahnya rating ditentukan oleh besar kecilnya penghasilan dan boros-tidaknya gaya hidup seseorang. Orang yang disebut prime adalah yang ratingnya 600 ke atas. Setiap tahun orang bisa memperkirakan sendiri, ratingnya naik atau turun.

Kalau sudah mencapai 600, dia sudah boleh bercita-cita punya rumah lewat mortgage. Kalau belum 600, dia harus berusaha mencapai 600. Bisa dengan terus bekerja keras
agar gajinya naik atau terus melakukan penghematan pengeluaran.

Tapi, karena perusahaan harus semakin besar dan laba harus kian tinggi, pasar pun digelembungkan. Orang yang ratingnya baru 500 sudah ditawari mortgage. Toh kalau gagal bayar, rumah itu bisa disita. Setelah disita, bisa dijual dengan harga yang lebih tinggi dari nilai pinjaman. Tidak pernah dipikirkan jangka panjangnya.

Jangka panjang itu ternyata tidak terlalu panjang. Dalam waktu kurang dari 10 tahun, kegagalan bayar mortgage langsung melejit. Rumah yang disita sangat banyak. Rumah yang dijual kian bertambah. Kian banyak orang yang jual rumah, kian turun harganya. Kian turun harga, berarti nilai jaminan rumah itu kian tidak cocok dengan nilai pinjaman. Itu berarti kian banyak yang gagal bayar.

Bank atau investment banking yang memberi pinjaman telah pula menjaminkan rumah-rumah itu kepada bank atau investment banking yang lain. Yang lain itu menjaminkan ke yang lain lagi. Yang lain lagi itu menjaminkan ke yang beriktunya lagi. Satu ambruk, membuat yang lain ambruk. Seperti kartu domino yang didirikan berjajar. Satu roboh menimpa kartu lain. Roboh semua.

Berapa ratus ribu atau juta rumah yang termasuk dalam mortgage itu? Belum ada data. Yang ada baru nilai uangnya. Kira-kira mencapai 5 triliun dolar. Jadi, kalau Presiden Bush merencanakan menyuntik dana APBN USD 700 miliar, memang perlu dipertanyakan: kalau ternyata dana itu tidak menyelesaikan masalah, apa harus menambah USD 700 miliar lagi? Lalu, USD 700 miliar lagi?

Itulah yang ditanyakan anggota DPR AS sekarang, sehingga belum mau menyetujui rencana pemerintah tersebut. Padahal, jumlah suntikan sebanyak USD 700 miliar itu sudah sama dengan pendapatan seluruh bangsa dan negara Indonesia dijadikan satu.

Jadi, kita masih harus menunggu apa yang akan dilakukan pemerintah dan rakyat AS. Kita juga masih menunggu data berapa banyak perusahaan dan orang Indonesia yang ''menabung'' - kan uangnya di lembaga-lembaga investment banking yang kini lagi pada kesulitan itu.

Sebesar tabungan itulah Indonesia akan terseret ke dalamnya. Rasanya tidak banyak, sehingga pengaruhnya tidak akan sebesar pengaruhnya pada Singapura,
Hongkong, atau Tiongkok.

Singapura dan Hongkong terpengaruh besar karena dua negara itu menjadi salah satu pusat beroperasinya raksasa-raksasa keuangan dunia. Sedangkan Tiongkok akan terpengaruh karena daya beli rakyat AS akan sangat menurun, yang berarti banyak barang buatan Tiongkok yang tidak bisa dikirim secara besar-besaran ke sana . Kita, setidaknya, masih bisa menanam jagung.(*)

Sumber: Jawa Pos - Minggu, 28 September 2008

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Hiroes Test

Your result for The Heroes Test...

Hiro Nakamura

You scored:
89% Purity
44% Intellegence
24% Strength


You have a joyful, childlike spirit. You're easily excited, and take on every challenge with enthusiasm. While some might get frustrated with your antics, you'll eventually get a smile out of even the coldest person.


Easily the star of the series, who doesn't love the child-like Hiro Nakamura, the only hero who actually seems to enjoy his powers: he can stop and control time, as well as teleport through time! By fast forwarding into the near future of New York, Hiro witnessed an atomic bomb destroying the city, and took it upon himself to stop it. After all, with great power comes great responsibility.


Chandra Suresh is more Intelligent.

Niki Sanders is Stronger.

Take The Heroes Test at HelloQuizzy